Losing Our Faith in Political History
Convivium, 24 October 2019
A rebuttal to the critics of Andrew Scheer who focus on his religious beliefs while forgetting it was historically outlandish to expect he’d win Election 2019.
About the election, three observations: one about history, another about campaigns, and the third about religion.
First, history matters. Amongst those who desired a Conservative victory, there has been much talk about how Andrew Scheer and his team frittered away a “winnable” election. If only the Conservatives had chosen back in 2017 someone else – Rona Ambrose, Jason Kenney, Peter MacKay, John Baird – then the Conservatives would have steamrollered over Justin Trudeau. Well, none of them ran, and they did not run precisely because they did not fancy six years on the opposition benches before a chance for victory came. Why? Because as everyone knows, first-term governments in Canada are never defeated. Ever. Just doesn’t happen.
Okay, okay – there was one time 84 years ago, back in 1935, when the country was only 68 years old. R. B. Bennett was defeated in the midst of the Great Depression. And he was defeated by a former prime minister, Mackenzie King. So, the one time Canadians defeated a first-term government, it was to go back to the immediate past prime minister. We like stability.
The election was only winnable for the Conservatives in the sense that occasionally something that never happens does happen for the first time. By definition that is rare. It did happen this year that for the first time the party that won the most votes did not win the most seats, so make of that what you will.
I think it means the Conservatives did better than any opposition party facing a first-term government has ever done, but we can argue about that. What is not debatable is that the Conservatives confounded expectations by not winning. No one ever has, so it should not have been expected.
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