King Charles will likely be the last British monarch to rule over Northern Ireland

National Post, 18 December 2022

It is not unimaginable that Charles' reign will witness the dissolution of the United Kingdom

In the days after his accession, King Charles III addressed parliamentarians in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Despite that early show of commitment to the unity of his kingdom, it is not unimaginable that his reign will witness the dissolution of the United Kingdom. Will Scotland attempt to separate? Perhaps, but it is Northern Ireland that bears closer watching.

Three weeks ago, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom ruled that Scotland could not stage another independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. The case explored uncharted waters; indeed, the Supreme Court of Canada decision regarding Quebec secession was introduced as a possible precedent.

In Ireland, however, the waters have been charted — at least to some extent. Last week was the centenary of the Irish Free State (later the Republic of Ireland), which established an independent Irish state on the emerald isle, save for the six counties of Northern Ireland. The Protestant majority there wished to remain part of the United Kingdom.

The subsequent turmoil and “Troubles” are well known. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 brought an end to the violence and established some limited powers for a Northern Ireland assembly, as well as consultative bodies between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and between the latter and the United Kingdom.

Most critically for the status of Northern Ireland, the accords recognized as legitimate both: i) the desire of a majority of northerners to remain in the U.K.; and ii) that a significant minority in the north, and a majority in the entire island, wanted a united Ireland.

Thus the status quo was recognized and confirmed until a double majority in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland wanted unification. If that were to happen, the Good Friday accords placed an “obligation” on both Dublin and London to facilitate unification.

Three developments since 1998 may bring about that double majority sooner than was expected back then.

First, Brexit. A wide consensus prevails that there be no effective border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with free passage in both directions. When both the U.K. and Ireland were part of the European Union, that was the statutory case. But with Brexit, the six counties of the north are in a different customs area, necessitating border controls. That was unacceptable, and threatened to unravel the Good Friday peace.

The solution was to create something of a “border” in the Irish Sea, dividing Britain from Northern Ireland, even though both are part of the U.K. Despite efforts to disguise it, this was a recognition that, at least in terms of personal travel, trade and economics, all of Ireland is a single unit that’s detachable from the U.K. And if that is a cultural and economic reality, then why oughtn’t it be a political reality, too?

Second, demographics. When the Irish Free State was established in 1922 with its large Catholic majority, the six counties of the north were two-thirds Protestant. The “unionist” cause with London had both political and religious roots, the Protestants fearing domination in a united Catholic Ireland.

Census figures released in September show that Catholics now make up 45.7 per cent of the population of Northern Ireland, while Protestants constitute 43.5 per cent. In 2011, Protestants outnumbered Catholics 48 per cent to 45 per cent.

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