If history is a guide, Hamas' gamble will likely backfire
National Post, 15 October 2023
The lessons of the Yom Kippur War remain relevant. It’s difficult now to appreciate how quickly things moved away from war and toward peace
The 2023 Israel-Hamas War is the fifth outbreak of war since the Israelis withdrew from Gaza in 2005. This time is more deadly and devastating, with Israel suffering its own version of 9/11 — massive jihadist attacks on the homeland.
Hamas attacked on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, when Egypt and Syria caught Israel by surprise on its holiest day. Simchat Torah, which began on Oct. 7 this year, is not as holy a day for Jews, but it is a Shabbat of added solemnity, giving the massacres of last Saturday a sacrilegious dimension.
Exactly 50 years ago, several days into the Yom Kippur War, Israeli society was dazed and disoriented. How could the mighty Israeli armed forces, which routed Israel’s neighbours only six years earlier in the Six Day War, have been pushed to the verge of catastrophic defeat? The lethal Hamas attacks have occasioned a similar reaction.
Unlike 1973, Israel is not now worried about losing a war with Hamas. Egypt is the largest Arab country in the world. Hamas is an Iranian proxy, but operates from a blockaded — by both Egypt and Israel — territory, which is tiny in size, small in population (2.3 million) and comparatively limited in armaments. Israel must decide what price it will pay to achieve its objectives regarding Hamas. The previous four Gaza wars demonstrated that the price will be high.
There are more questions than answers now, even about the next weeks, let alone the medium or long term. Yet the lessons of the Yom Kippur War remain relevant. It’s difficult now to appreciate how quickly things moved away from war and toward peace.
Oct. 6, 1973: Egyptian President Anwar Sadat moves troops into the Sinai Peninsula, which Egypt had lost in the Six Day War.
Oct. 25, 1973: A ceasefire marks Egypt’s defeat in the Yom Kippur War.
Nov. 20, 1977: Sadat travels to Jerusalem and addresses the Knesset, merely four years after launching the attack on Yom Kippur.
Sept. 17, 1978: The Camp David Accords establish peace between Egypt and Israel, and the return of the Sinai to Egypt.
Oct. 6, 1981: Sadat is assassinated on the eighth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War.
Sadat’s assassination by Islamic radicals opposed to his peace with Israel shook the world. U.S. President Ronald Reagan sent all the former presidents to represent the United States at the funeral: Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter.
Yet it is a mistake to think of the Camp David Accords as being rejected only by the jihadists. Sadat’s decision to delink peace with Israel from the Palestinian question was widely opposed in the Arab world. Egypt was expelled from the Arab League for 10 years.
Three years ago, in the waning months of the Trump administration, the Abraham Accords revived the post-1973 Sadat delinkage. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco all recognized Israel and established diplomatic relations. Peace had been made without reference to the Palestinian question.
The Abraham Accords moved ahead on Arab-Israeli peace without insisting upon any resolution of the Palestinian question. It was assumed in 2020 that Saudi Arabia was agreeable to that principle, otherwise the other Gulf states would not have gone ahead. On his visit to the United States last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke openly about Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords in the near future. The Biden administration is determined to extend the breakthrough brokered by Donald Trump.
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