Prepare for a dangerous new world disorder
National Post, 22 October 2023
Beijing, Moscow and Tehran strengthen ties and their potential to wreak havoc around the world
The eyes of the diplomatic world were on Tel Aviv this week, with wartime visits from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. That was the theatre of great urgency, with massive consequences for the next weeks and months.
The presence of the three visitors made it clear that this Israel-Hamas war is different. But how different? There is also a continuity with the previous four Israel-Hamas wars, to say nothing about the previous Arab-Israeli wars in 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982 and 2006.
What is unfolding now is something significantly different in degree, but not entirely in kind. Israel has been here before, and resolutely intends to end this war not as it ended the previous Gaza wars: Operation Cast Lead (2009), Operation Pillar of Defence (2012), Operation Protective Edge (2014) and Operation Guardian of the Walls (2021). That history, recent and remote, shapes what is unfolding now.
While Biden was flying to Israel, China was wrapping up its “Belt and Road Forum,” marking the 10th anniversary of its “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). General Secretary Xi Jinping launched the BRI in 2013, promising massive Chinese investments in infrastructure across central Asia, seeking to link China with European and African markets. The BRI is China’s bid to become a patron of dozens of countries en route, making them indebted to China and dependent on its technology.
Back in 2013, various Western countries looked favourably upon it; after all, trade links were thought to make the world more peaceable and free. And, not incidentally, the rise of China was welcomed by many who preferred a multipolar world to the post-Cold War of America as the sole superpower.
The multipolar world has arrived, and the American imperium has not been followed by multilateral harmony but by multiple threats in different theatres. The challenges that are different in kind, not degree, were on display in Beijing, where the feted guest of honour was Russia’s Vladimir Putin. He travels rarely; he attended the recent BRICS summit in South Africa by video link, despite the “R” standing for Russia. Some 130 delegations were in Beijing for the BRI forum — including Taliban ministers from Afghanistan — but Xi kept Putin glued to his side for the entire time.
It was the ceremonial debut of a new balance of power. The BRI summit was long scheduled for this week, but the juxtaposition of Xi and a wartime Putin in Beijing with Biden and a wartime Netanyahu in Tel Aviv made clear that a new world disorder is at hand.
Consider the past four years.
The global pandemic that originated in China was exacerbated by the communist regime’s recklessness and dishonesty. The immense human toll and economic cost unleashed would have been significantly reduced had China acted in the manner of a good global citizen.
Russia’s extension of its war against Ukraine into full-scale invasion brought Moscow into indirect conflict with Warsaw, Berlin, London and Washington. From Putin’s point of view, he is at war with Europe and North America. And while few endorse his war outright, there is little effective opposition and much economic help from China and India, as well as across the global south. Xi put Putin at centre stage in Beijing, and there was no shortage of applause from the audience.
The Hamas attack of this month was the deadliest day in Israeli history. While the exact degree of co-ordination between Iran and Hamas in this operation remains unknown as of yet, the existence of Hamas is itself a product of Iranian foreign policy.
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