In September, Israel's future looked bright. That's the world it must strive for
National Post, 22 December 2023
Painful years may be ahead if diplomacy cannot restore pre-war hope
On Sept. 22, a New York Times headline read: A Visit to the U.S. Revives an Embattled Netanyahu. But it noted that “greater challenges are still awaiting him back home.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the United Nations General Assembly in New York that week was a great success. He got a (delayed) meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden and a (belated) invitation to the White House, heard friendly overtures from Saudi Arabia about joining the Abraham Accords and even had a friendly meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
While he was riding high in New York, though, the tunnels in Gaza were buzzing with readiness for a brutal and barbarous attack. Challenges were indeed waiting back home.
Two weeks later marked the beginning of the end of Netanyahu’s premiership, presiding as he did over the most catastrophic Israeli intelligence and security failure in 50 years. Even Netanyahu’s resolve to bend Israeli politics around his determination to remain in office will not be enough to survive the coruscating reckoning that is coming.
I wrote previously about the emergence of antisemitism after the Oct. 7 massacre. That has gained proper attention and contributed to a sense in Israel that it alone will have to deal with the threat on its borders. Nevertheless, it is important that Israel address the strategic challenges wrought by October 2023 without losing sight of the potential of September 2023.
Israel’s conduct of this fifth Hamas war has been based on the premise that Hamas must be permanently disabled, which requires the pulverization of much of Gaza, as Hamas embeds its terror infrastructure within the general population. If that means high civilian loss of life and property, then Hamas is responsible for that, too.
It is not an argument without merit. The merit of the argument is more valid today than in the first Israel-Hamas war more than a decade ago. After Oct. 7, the argument has more merit still.
Still, Israel must recognize that many of its friends do not agree. Outside of Israel — even in Washington — there is the view that Hamas can be degraded, even decimated, but not utterly destroyed, not while it enjoys popular sympathy and Iranian backing in materiel.
Israel’s allies do not think that this fifth war against Hamas — even though more intensely prosecuted — can achieve the disabling of Iranian-backed Hamas, which the previous four wars did not. Thus the high civilian causalities are not justified — innocents are suffering for a war goal that cannot be achieved. That, too, is an argument with merit, which grows as the devastation in Gaza intensifies.
Israel felt betrayed when Canada voted for the UN General Assembly’s “ceasefire” resolution on Dec. 12. But Australia and New Zealand also voted for it. Indeed, 153 of 193 member states voted in favour.
Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Ukraine and the United Kingdom did not vote with Israel against the motion; they abstained (there were 23 abstentions). Those who voted with Israel against the motion included Austria, Czech Republic, Guatemala, Liberia, Micronesia, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay and the United States. Stalwart support in the South Pacific is surely welcome in Jerusalem, but it is of modest strategic value.
Even the Biden administration has expressed its disagreement with the pulverization approach, calling for an end to “indiscriminate bombing.” For Israel to be isolated like this is of concern to friends of Israel, and should be of concern in Israel, too. Yet it would be a mistake to focus exclusively on the criticism of allies — or to consider such criticism as rendering them former allies — and to neglect the possibility of new friends.
Post Oct. 7, two key strategic developments need to be balanced. First, the Saudis have made it clear that if they were preparing to join the Abraham Accords in September, against the objections of the Palestinian leadership, they will not be dissuaded because of Hamas terrorism. If Hamas attacked Israel to provoke a response that would make it harder for Israeli rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, the latter are not willing to reward that logic.
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