A budding peace grows in the Islamic world, despite terrorist efforts
National Post, 01 January 2024
Optimism brews as Indonesian Muslims build a movement for 'humanitarian Islam' and those in the Middle East work to normalize relations
The October Hamas massacre again brought to the fore the phenomenon of jihadist terrorism. From 9/11 to the Islamic State group, it has been a mark of this still young century. At year-end though, it was not the only story of import from the Islamic world. Indeed, there were several worthy of note, some of them underreported.
The biggest news of the year on the Islamic geopolitical front was the rapprochement, and resumption of diplomatic relations, between the two great Islamic powers: (Shia) Iran and (Sunni) Saudi Arabia. The talks, brokered by Beijing in the spring, marked a diplomatic triumph for China and confirmed the arrival of a new multi-polar world.
The warming of relations does not eliminate anxieties in Riyadh about the mischief — including nuclear mischief — Teheran is working in the region, but it opens an important door. Perhaps a solution to the seemingly intractable Yemeni civil war, in which both Iran and Saudi Arabia are enmeshed, is now possible to pursue.
It is significant that Iran was willing to embrace Saudi Arabia as the latter was preparing to enter a new relationship with both Israel and the United States through the Donald Trump administration’s Abraham Accords. Again, not an end to Iranian mischief, but a positive development.
On the negative side, the willingness of both Islamic powers to agree to Beijing’s mediation when China has a million or more Uyghurs in concentration camps is a blow to Muslim solidarity and religious freedom. China, accused of committing genocide against the Uyghur Muslims by the U.S. as well as the House of Commons of both the United Kingdom and Canada, had already been acting with impunity. That Iran and Saudi Arabia were willing to conspicuously overlook the plight of their fellow Muslims at the hands of the Chinese communist regime means that Muslim liberties under Beijing will deteriorate even further.
Some optimism can be found in the Islamic world’s reaction to the Hamas attacks. In the aftermath, plenty of attention was given to sympathetic demonstrations, including antisemitic ones, in various western cities and campuses. Noteworthy, though, was the lack of activity on the supposedly inflammable Arab “street” in the Middle East and North Africa. Hamas has few friends in the region’s Islamic capitals, but it was not only governments who kept their distance — so too did the people. One reason the various governments could keep their distance is that they did not face popular pressure to engage.
A major positive development is that the Abraham Accords held after facing their first major test with the Israel-Hamas war, and now continue on an expanding trajectory. The accords, brokered by the Trump administration, aim to normalize the relationships between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
Before the war, it was widely expected that Saudi Arabia would join the accords, likely leading to many other Islamic countries joining. It is plausible that Hamas launched its attacks to disrupt that process. If so, it failed. The original signatories did not withdraw, and the Saudis will likely resume talks after the war is over. Israel’s strategic challenge is to ensure that its prosecution of the war does not threaten the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
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